Has DOGE missed its opportunity?

I have to admit, I was rooting for DOGE. I had hopes that DOGE would be able to tackle many of the most intractable problems of federal agencies, like stopping failed programs, eliminating poorly performing offices and staff, implementing aggressive data techniques to eliminate fraud and identify efficiencies and eventually modernizing the government’s most antiquated business practices, like security clearances, hiring and retirement processing.

Anyone who has been a senior government official knows those problems exist, along with many others. Most of us have railed against them many times, and discussed ways to deal with them if only given a “magic wand” to change them. A few have had success in addressing problems under their direct control by cutting programs, budgets or staff and returning actual dollars to the Treasury.

With a new administration that was clearly willing to cut deep, and an activist leader who had the ear of the President, I had hopes that DOGE had the magic wand and would be able to take on the political and legal challenges that are the primary barriers to cutting wasteful parts of government.

But after the first 100 days it is clear that what should have been a carefully planned attack strategy has turned into a variety of scattershot “whack-a-mole” attempts at various agencies — exactly the approach that the federal bureaucracy was designed to fend off. For every “we found paper records stashed in a mine in Pennsylvania” story DOGE promulgated, the bureaucracy has come back with many more “you fired the wrong people,” or “you could expose every person’s social security data” to put DOGE back on their heels. What started with the promise that real change would happen has been beaten back by unnecessary mistakes that have eroded support for DOGE.

At this point, it seems that DOGE and the bureaucracy have reached a stalemate. And in a battle of attrition, smart money is on the bureaucracy. “Outwait, out play, and outlast” — to paraphrase the Survivor motto — is a major strength of the bureaucracy that has ended many attempts at transformation.

It didn’t have to be this way. There is a path to long-term success for the type of transformations DOGE seeks, and given continued support from the president there is still an opportunity to re-trench and move forward. The successes and failures of previous transformation efforts — eg, Reinventing Government, Y2K, 21F, Digital Service and others — can highlight a path to long-term success that DOGE should follow, including:

• Start with easy wins. Build a reputation for success by identifying and dealing with the most obvious problems first. It takes some work, but DOGE should make a list of the 5-10 worst performing programs at each agency, and get the head of the agency on board with what should happen to each of them. Take your time. The accuracy and executability of this list is critical.
• Flex. Have the president announce that he is ordering the actions you have recommended for each item on your list. The agencies need to see that there is no appeal avenue open to overturn your decisions.
• Monitor that every recommended action on the list is taken. People in every agency — and at every level — will work to defeat your plan. Bring recalcitrant programs or agencies to the White House to discuss their progress. Bring agency heads in for meetings with the president if necessary.
• Build public trust. Announce auditable progress steps as they are accomplished. Brief Congress even if you don’t have to. Create a monthly report of progress on each transformation ordered by the president. Demonstrate unarguable progress.
• Build a reputation for being irresistible change agents. Value the people who want to work with you. Demonstrate career growth for those that work with you, and career ending for those that work against you.
• Build a reputation for success. Don’t allow halfway execution on DOGE transformation plans. Track each transformation ordered by the president to final implementation. Track metrics that show improvements because of the implemented transformations.
• Aim bigger. With lessons learned from closing the worst performing parts of government, what would be transformations worthy of Elon Musk? Is it hiring and employment rules; data analytics and combining data from many sources; restructuring entire agencies; or possibly tackling the budget process and how things get funded and measured? This is a target rich environment.
• Pick one “Big Hairy Audacious Goal” and make a plan for it to happen. Get the president and his advisors, the agencies involved, Congress, and possibly even the public on board with the need for change, and the need to take the risks inherent is such a large change.
• Make it stick. If you declare victory and go home after one, two, or even four years, the bureaucracy will quickly revert to business as usual. You must find ways to make your transformations permanent, largely by making the transformation process itself something that future administrations want to keep rather than eliminate.

Has DOGE burned through the substantial political capital it enjoyed at the start of the administration? Probably. They made substantial mistakes, and have blundered into areas and issues that make it easy for Congress to oppose them. But even if they have to retrench and start again, careful work, demonstrated successes and presidential support could enable them to create a successful path to achieve the ultimate DOGE goal of eliminating waste and substantially reducing cost of government.

Roger Baker was the Assistant Secretary and CIO for VA from 2009 to 2013. In 2010, VA stopped nearly 200 non-performing IT programs, and returned $323 million in resulting savings to the Treasury.